by Dr. Patrick Jones
Population growth in Chelan and Douglas Counties hit the brakes this year. The April 1 estimates from the Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) show a gain of 900 residents in the two counties over April 1 of 2024. This breaks down to 600 in Chelan County and 300 in Douglas County. The gains are the lowest, by level or percentage, in the area since 2020.
Specifically, the OFM estimates place total population at 128,350. This is a year-over-year percentage gain of 0.7%. From 2021 to 2024, the average annual growth rate was 1.1%.
Among the cities and towns of the two counties, the “winner” of this year’s population growth sweepstakes was Entiat, at 11%, followed by Chelan, at 1%, and Rock Island, at 0.9%. Over the 2020-2025 interval, Rock Island’s cumulative growth, at 33%, clearly took first place. Leavenworth was next, followed by Entiat, at 16% and 15%, respectively. Notably, the largest two cities, Wenatchee and East Wenatchee, showed tepid growth.
How has population in the metro area grown compared to that of Washington? About the same since 2020: a cumulative 5%. One takeaway: population growth has matched strides with the state, one of the more rapidly growing states in the union. Another takeaway: the area hasn’t shown itself to be a work from home hotspot, as some have speculated.
How has area population recently expanded? It’s not due to a surfeit of newborns. While the natural increase (births – deaths) have been positive, it has not been large. Consider the past three years: the two counties welcomed 3,700 new residents. Of those, 3,263 or 88%, were estimated to be in-migrants. (See Trends indicator 0.2.1, Residual Net Migration, for more detail.)
The importance of newcomers to the area bolstering population numbers becomes all the more important in light of these data. Assuming that area majority sentiment is for some population growth, how then do the two counties become attractive in the eyes of residents elsewhere?
The first line response is either through job creation or retirees landing here. There has certainly been an expansion of older adults (65+) in the area. A decade ago (2014), they made up about 17% of total population in Chelan and Douglas Counties. This year: 1%. How much of this gain is due to newcomers or to resident baby boomers hitting this age is impossible to tell. It is this writer’s hunch that the gain of older adults in the population is due to a combination of both. (See Trends indicator 0.1.3, Share of Population by Age Groups, for more detail.)
What about job creation? Recently, that has been none too strong. In fact, as of 2024, the number of residents of the two counties who were estimated to be employed was lower than pre-pandemic 2019 – by over 2,400! Consequently, it appears that the draw of area has recently come from retirees rather than job seekers. (See Trends indicator 2.3.1, Number Employed.)
What’s the outlook for population in the two counties? OFM demographers have an answer for that question, too. At least from 2022. Every 5 years, they must produce county-specific projections to inform the Growth Management Act decisions. The most recent stems from 2022.
At that time in its “medium” scenario, OFM forecasted a gain of approximately 3,500 in Chelan County between 2025 and 2030. For Douglas County, about 2,400. In total, nearly 6,000 over the next five years. Will the current pattern of settlement, with towns like Rock Island, Leavenworth and Entiat leading the way, hold? Or will the two largest cities bump up their trajectory of growth?
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