by Dr. Patrick Jones
Chelan and Douglas Counties certainly have their share of superlatives: a huge producer of hydroelectricity, home to some of the largest apple and pear acreage in the U.S., and a sought-after playground for summer and winter sports. But along with the accolades comes a dubious distinction: the two counties make up the least affordable region in Eastern Washington to buy a home.
This statement rests on recent calculations by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. The Trends compiles quarterly data from the Center and presents them in the graph below, All Buyers' Housing Affordability Index
The Housing Affordability Index calculated by the Center for all 39 counties in the state is, in the most general terms, a ratio of income (numerator) to housing costs (denominator). Specifically, income in this version of the index consists of 25% of the area’s median household income, on a quarterly basis. Why 25%? The Center, in keeping with a long tradition of government policy, assumes that households should not pay more than 25% of their income on housing costs.
The denominator incorporates two factors: First, the quarterly price of a resale home (no new construction), evaluated at the median; second, current mortgage rates of a 30-year fixed rate. In other words, the quarterly mortgage payment. A sister indicator on the Trends, Housing Affordability Index for 1st-time Buyers, offers a similar ratio for households with less than median household income looking to purchase a resale home that is less than current median in the two counties.
The value of 100 indicates that a household has just the right amount of income to afford the current area mortgage. A value greater than 100 says that household has more than enough income to do this; a value less than 100, not enough income. In other words, higher is better.
The local results of both indicators are benchmarked to a similar index calculated for the entire state (in green).
The value of the All-Buyers’ Index for Q2 of this calendar year: 57. And for the past three quarters, the local All-Buyers’ Index has sported a value below the state’s! Currently, the state index is 71. No other metro area in eastern Washington currently shows a lower value. Consider these current index values: Spokane County, at 71; Benton County, at 76, Franklin County, at 83, Yakima County, at 82, and neighboring Grant County, at 84.
For a little more than the past three years, as the graph shows, the All-Buyers’ Index for the two counties has hovered in the low 60 to high 50 range. For most of the time over the entire series shown (start of 2018), values of the local index have lain below the state index. In other words, the region has a multi-year history of being less affordable than the state.
Yet it is worth noting that the local index values exceeded 100 for several quarters between 2018 and 2020. In fact, the value of the first quarter in 2020 stood at 106, a relative peak. The pandemic, however, ushered in a dramatic decline. Within a little more than two years (Q2 2022), the affordability ratio plunged to 62. As another housing indicator, Median Home Resale Price reveals, this dramatic decline in affordability mirrored a dramatic increase (over $210,000) in the median priced resale home over the same period.
Contrary to some opinion, the price boom may not have been a result a huge number of urban “refugees” decamping for good to the two counties. Net migration did not soar in those two-plus years. In fact, the recent peak of net migration took place between early 2020 and early 2019.
That said, it could be that urban refugees came, but not necessarily to stay permanently.
The housing affordability index is undoubtedly influenced by this recent phenomenon, and longer term, by the second home market here. The resort areas of Chelan and Leavenworth have become very popular landing spots for west-side vacationers. If we could access sales by districts in the two counties and strip out sales in those two markets, it is my hunch that affordability here would look better.
I don’t think, however, that this editing would show the two counties in an entirely new, affordable light. Land in desirable places and construction labor in general are still relatively scarce in the two counties.
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