by Dr. Kelley Cullen
An engaged electorate is vital to ensuring that elected officials at the local, state and national levels are responsive to and reflective of the communities they serve. On the other hand, waning participation rates in elections could suggest lack of efficacy or frustration with the political process. So, the conundrum is: How do we interpret a divergence in voter participation that is increasing in presidential and midterm elections, but decreasing in off-year elections?
One way of measuring civic involvement in a community is through voter participation rates as tracked in Chelan Douglas Trends 0.4.2 Share of Registered Voters Voting in November Elections. Using data from the Washington Secretary of State, the turn-out rate among registered voters in Chelan & Douglas Counties as well as the state as a whole for November elections is presented.
In the most recent presidential election in 2020, 85% of registered voters in the combined counties of Chelan & Douglas turned out to vote, just above the average of 84% statewide. The two counties had very similar voter participation rates for presidential elections: Chelan (86%), Douglas (84%).
For comparison, only two-thirds of all registered voters in the US turned out. Clearly registered voters in the combined counties are concerned with elections of national significance, and in fact participation in presidential elections has been steadily increasing since 1996 (start of President Clinton’s second term) when it was 71%.
Turning to the mid-term elections in the even years between presidential elections when the entire US House of Representatives is up for (re-)election, we see greater volatility in participation rates at both the county and state levels. Whereas in the 2010 & 2018 mid-term elections, 74% (nearly three in four) of registered voters took to the polls, turnout was down in the most recent election in 2022, at only 66% (nearly two-thirds). Just prior to the peak in 2018, voter turnout had hit a relative trough at only 58% in the midterm election of 2014. This up and down behavior occurred across the state as well.
Interestingly, voter turnout in the two counties was slightly different in the most recent midterm election of 2022. In Chelan County, 68% of registered voters cast their votes, above the state average of 64%. In Douglas County, only 62% of registered voters completed an official ballot in November of 2022.
In contrast to the increasing participation in presidential elections and the increased volatility of the midterm elections, participation in the odd years (off-year) elections where there is typically a dearth of state and national races on the ballot, voter turnout has been consistently declining since 1997 and is currently significantly lower than the other types of elections.
In the most recent off-year November election in 2021, voter participation for the combined counties dipped to 44%, but above the state average of 39%. The drop in off-year voter turnout has been steep since 1997 when voter turnout was just over 61%. In Chelan County, the decline over the past 25 years has gone from 62% to 47%. But in Douglas County, the drop has been steeper, from 60% to 39%, suggesting even less interest in local elections in Douglas County than in Chelan County.
So, what could explain the difference in trajectories between presidential (upward) and off-year elections (downward)?
First, it is important to note that this divergence of voter participation rates is not unique to Chelan & Douglas or even to Washington. In fact, voter turnout for local elections across the United States averaged only 27%, with some large metro areas such as Fort Worth, TX & Las Vegas, NV experiencing single digit eligible voter turnout in the most recent local election.
In studies attempting to explain low voter turnouts around the nation, barriers to voting are often offered up as explanations. Washington state in particular has been using mail-in ballots for over a decade now to reduce some of the barriers to casting one’s ballot. However, is still possible that households fail to remember to return their ballots in a timely fashion or simply misplace them prior to election day, especially when there is not as much publicity about a local election.
Another plausible explanation is that lower turnout for local elections is due to a lack of awareness of the local candidates and issues, along with a lack of understanding of the specific functions of local elected officials and their impacts on daily life. Conversely, during national and state elections, there is a plethora of advertising promoting major candidates. But during off-cycle elections, local candidates often lack the funds to engage in the same level of advertising.
In response to declining voter participation rates, some municipalities such as New York City have turned to incentives such as a lottery reward for those turning in their ballots. (This lottery incentive was also used recently to encourage Covid-19 vaccinations in Ohio.) In both cases, the initial evidence suggests an immediate uptick in voting and vaccination rates.
Ultimately, however, it is important that an electorate regularly participates in the election process, be it at the national, state or local level. With local governments around the nation distributing services and spending almost $2 trillion (roughly the same as the entire CARES Act), Chelan & Douglas residents who return their ballots can help determine how those funds are distributed through the election of their local officials. With this civic participation, especially at the local level, residents should feel more engaged with the community in which they live.