by Dr. Patrick Jones
After flirting with a par value with the U.S. for several years, median household income (MHI) in the two counties has recently dipped below par. Estimates released last month by the U.S. Census, put the 2021 result at $65,000. This is viewable at Trends indicator (2.1.2)
The estimate places Chelan and Douglas Counties in the middle of the pack among eastern Washington metro areas. Much higher MHI was observed in the Tri Cities, while estimates for Spokane and Walla Walla were a bit higher. Coming in lower were both Grant and Yakima Counties.
The 2021 result represents a gain of about $4,100 over a 2-year period. Census did not release 2020 estimates, due to a low response to its survey during the heart of the pandemic. The percentage increase over the two years: about 6.7%. This placed the two counties near the bottom of eastern Washington metro areas.
Median household income is one of the “apex” measures in evaluating economic progress. Others key measures cover distributional impacts, such as poverty rates or a comprehensive look at income distribution. MHI provides an excellent summary of many forces. Generally, personal income serves as a fundamental measure in economic accounting, tracking returns to individuals from wages, investment income and federal transfer payments. Median is seen as a better measure of the middle in income distributions in the U.S., due the presence of very large values on the upper end. And a household allows for more than one income recipient, which is how many Americans live. (A household will often be family, but can take other forms.)
What lies behind the jump in the two counties, modest as it was?
We won’t know the 2021 story for a few more weeks. But we do know what happened in 2020 from another federal source, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In a nutshell, two of the three three major components of personal income registered strong increases versus 2019. Wage & salary income climbed, in aggregate, nearly 7%. However, investment income, did not: 2020 levels in the two counties actually declined from 2019.
It was federal transfer payments that made up the largest categorical gain. Those flows into the two counties rose more than $400 million, or by nearly one third, over 2019 levels. The general gain should come as no surprise, given the size of federal pandemic assistance that reached the Valley in 2020. In per capita terms, 2020 federal transfer payments amounted to over $13,600 for every man, woman and child in the two counties.
Careful readers may wonder why MHI went up by $4,100 over the two-year period while one of its components, average annual wage, rose by about $6,000 between 2021 and 2019. An accompanying article takes a closer look at this this key economic indicator.
Key to the discrepancy is that the average salary or total wage registers only those people were working. In 2020 at least 6,000 fewer people were employed in the two counties than in the prior year. Although the decline shrunk in 2021, the number of people employed last year was still 2,000 below the 2019 number. As Trends indicator 2.3.1 displays, the unemployed in the Chelan and Douglas Counties amounted to 8.4 % of the workforce in 2020 and 5.4% in 2021.
The Trends indicator also tracks estimates of median household income for the two counties. At $65,800, Chelan MHI is only slightly above two-county median. Due to its smaller size, Douglas County doesn’t receive single year estimates from the Census, but does receive rolling 5-year estimates. The next one – for the 2017-2021 period, will be out in December. We can deduce, however, that the likely 2021 MHI for Douglas County was slightly below the two-county median putting the estimate around $57,000.
How might 2022 turn out for the greater Wenatchee area? Preliminary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the first quarter of this year reveal solid wage gains. In Chelan County, the average weekly wage was reported at $953, or a gain of 6% over the same quarter in 2021. In Douglas County, the average weekly wage was reported at $850, 5% over the first quarter of last year.
Factor in, too, higher employment levels this year than in 2021. For August, the BLS estimate put this year’s level at a gain of 1,000 for Chelan County and about 400 in Douglas County. So, the increase of the wage component of MHI will likely be strong a mid-single digits by year-end.
The ultimate flow of investment income is less clear. If the financial markets continue the current path to the year’s end, local income from dividends, capital gains, and interest could well be lower than 2021. On the other hand, if most of local real estate is held locally, at least rental income will likely be up.
It seems unlikely that transfer payments from the federal government will be much higher this year than last. No new pandemic stimulus flows to households have arrived. For sure, if pandemic-relief funds to local governments haven’t been fully spent, that spending should translate into income gains. And due to inflation, social security payments will be considerably higher. Other large, meaningful transfer programs to the two counties, such as Medicare and Medicaid, might be somewhat higher. On balance, however, it seems unlikely that this component of area income – second largest – will be much higher than 2021.
So 2022 should mark a general reversion to pre-pandemic conditions. 2023 should usher back in prior income patterns where aggregate wages and salaries will be key to the economy of the two counties.