{"id":1322,"date":"2022-12-29T15:36:51","date_gmt":"2022-12-29T22:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chelandouglastrends.com\/newsletter\/?page_id=1322"},"modified":"2023-01-05T15:21:36","modified_gmt":"2023-01-05T22:21:36","slug":"jan23_main3","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/chelandouglastrends.com\/newsletter\/jan23_main3\/","title":{"rendered":"Fewer Local Residents Stopping with a High School Education"},"content":{"rendered":"
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by Dr. Patrick Jones<\/strong><\/p>

It was in 2005 that the U.S. Census Bureau started to provide annual estimates that help sketch a portrait of Chelan and Douglas Counties. The latest lines added to the portrait were released this fall. Among the many indicators on Chelan Douglas Trends based on Census estimates, one showed a substantial drop. That\u2019s not a bad thing.<\/p>

The drop occurred in the measure of the lowest levels of educational attainment, a high school degree or less. It\u2019s found in Trends indicator 3.3.1<\/a>. In this graph, lower is better, if one believes that some post-secondary education is important. \u00a0<\/em>(The status of those with post-secondary education is tracked in two companion indicators -- 3.3.2<\/a>, Share of the Adult Population with an Associate\u2019s Degree or Some Community College Classwork, <\/em>and 3.3.3<\/a>, Share of the Adult Population with a Bachelor\u2019s Degree or Higher.<\/em>)<\/p>

Economic consequences of education<\/strong><\/p>

Research has consistently shown that education levels are positively correlated with workplace earnings. This September, economists at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released yet another analysis<\/a> that examined 2021 national data (from the Current Population Survey of the Census Bureau). Median weekly earnings of those with an Associate\u2019s degree were 50% higher than those with less than a high school diploma. Weekly earnings of those with a Bachelor\u2019s degree were twice as high as those without a high school diploma.<\/p>

Unemployment rates also varied inversely with education levels. Those without a high school degree experienced an 8.3% unemployment rate nationally in 2021. This with an Associate\u2019s degree, a little more than half of that rate (4.6%), and those with a Bachelor\u2019s degree, far less than half, at 3.5%.<\/p>

From the perspectives of the regional economy, the value of\u00a0 shares in indicator 3.3.1<\/a> offer insights into the economic conditions in the two counties. If higher degree attainment matters to local employers, it should, over time, occur. The estimate of 2021 for those whose highest level of education is a high school diploma was 26.5%. \u00a0This is down about one percentage point from the average of the prior three years, not including 2020. (Due to the pandemic, Census did not release estimates for 2020.) Further, the 2021 estimate is a just a bit lower than in 2005, at the start of the series.<\/p>

Stronger improvement was evident in the share of the population whose highest level of educational attainment was less than a high school degree. In 2021, this was about one out of every seven residents (14.6%). The 2021 estimate is down a full four percentage points from the prior three years, again excluding 2020. And the estimate is about three percentage points lower than 2005.<\/p>

Clearly, local public K-12 districts are experiencing greater success in getting their students to earn a diploma. That success can be observed in Trends indicator 3.1.11<\/a>. For the most recent class available, 2021, the 5-year graduation rate throughout both counties was over 88%. A decade ago, it was about 79%. Local schools now rank higher than the Washington average by this measure.<\/p>

It is nonetheless worth noting that the local share of residents whose educational attainment is high school degree or less remains far above<\/em> the Washington average and to a lesser extent above<\/em> the U.S. average.<\/p>

Trends of post-secondary educational attainment locally<\/strong><\/p>

If the share of residents whose formal education ends with high school has declined, shares of other educational attainment measures necessarily have risen. This is not the case, however, for residents of the two counties with some exposure to community college. The 2021 estimates are actually a little lower than the average of the three years immediately preceding the pandemic. In fact, they are lower than in 2005 \u2013 by about four percentage points. Relative to the three pre-pandemic years, the estimated drop in 2021 appears to be in the share of the population with an Associate\u2019s degree.<\/p>

Still, it\u2019s worthwhile pointing out that the share of the two-county population with some exposure to community college is only a little below that of the state average. And Washington enjoys a reputation as home to one of the highest-performing community college systems in the U.S. (See the recent Wallet Hub<\/a> ranking.) It\u2019s clear from\u00a0 3.3.2<\/a>, Share of the Adult Population with an Associate\u2019s Degree or some Community College Classwork <\/em>that the local share is higher than the national share.<\/p>

The largest change in educational attainment shows up in indicator 3.3.3<\/a>, Share of the Adult Population with a Bachelor\u2019s Degree or Higher. <\/em>At an estimated 18.9% in 2021, the share of the local population with a Bachelor\u2019s degree was nearly three percentage points higher than the 3-year pre-pandemic average. And the share of the population with a post-graduate or professional degree in 2021, at 10.2%, was about one percentage point above the its share in the three years before the pandemic.<\/p>

We\u2019ll need to wait a few more months before the 2022 results are out to know whether the 2021 estimates are anomalous or a continuation of a trend that appears to have started a decade ago. My sense is that they represent the latter. For example, two sectors that employ college graduates and post-graduates are Professional & Technical<\/em> Services<\/em> and Healthcare\/Social Assistance. <\/em>\u00a0As Trends indicator 2.3.3<\/a>, Share of Employment in Top 5 Employing Sectors, <\/em>clearly shows, Healthcare\/Social \u00a0e<\/em>Assistance has dramatically increased its share of the workforce over the past 15 years. Not as big but still growing quickly is the \u201cwhite collar\u201d sector Professional & Scientific Services. (Its numbers are observable in the \u201cDownload Data\u201d spreadsheet.)<\/p>

How many local residents with Bachelor\u2019s degrees or higher are locally-grown? To what degree are in-migrants driving the change? \u00a0It is difficult to say, since educational profiles don\u2019t accompany the in-migration data. The growth of healthcare professionals likely leans to new residents. On the other hand, the greater Wenatchee area can celebrate that its Hispanic high school students are seeking post-secondary education at higher rates than their counterparts state-wide. (see indicator 9.1.1<\/a>). Many may find, or have already found, their way back home.


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